August 18, 2008
Let's see, decreasing demand in America, the end of fuel subsidies in China, and rapid global deflation* equals what? A decrease in the price of oil in the face of a Gulf Coast hurricane. I claim victory and my righteous place as economics seer of the year.
Unfortunately, such pronouncements not only have the contrarian effect of dooming me to any forseeable future success in these markets; but they also actually ruin any chances I ever had of claiming some sort of social life.
The upside is that I shorted a market that was at $145, and it ended at $112 today. Too bad the money I made will never be enough to fill the void that keeping up with this ridiculously volatile market left in my already depreciated character. Good Lord, I am such a loser. * Of course, the terrifying downside of deflation is that, unchecked, it can ruin an economy. This is going to sound counterintuitive, but the great thing about living in the USA is that our greatest ally in fighting deflation are the giant printing presses located at your regional Treasury mint. It makes you feel secure, until you begin to critically analyze the theory:
1) If printing more money keeps asset prices from deflating,
2) Has the economy strengthened at all since the Great Depression?
Now, from here on out the subject becomes very...subjective. There are people who swear up and down that the Fed and the Treasury are lying through their teeth, that they are leading America to eminent doom, and that we are all going to be pledging allegiance to the Chinese flag in due time.
The facts of this horrifying but ultimately bullshit scenario are thus:
1) No country is ever going to invade the US. Too many people own firearms. Seriously, think about your block. On my cul-de-sac, there are 9 occupied residences, including my own; 7 of which hold firearms, not inluding my own. Granted, pistols, rifles and shotguns may do little to stop an advancing tank; but when it comes to the area of land itself, the armed citizens always win. And please don't forget that there are many areas of this country (north, south, midwest, and beyond) that would thoroughly enjoy lighting up an advancing army if for no other reason that it gave them the opportunity to show off their marksmanship.
2)Yes, the Chinese government (and a few other sovreign wealth funds) quite literally own our asses. We owe them so much money that each one of us would have to cut them a $2,200 check right now to clear our debt. The sliver of an upside to this hairy predicament is that our purchasing runs their production. If they called our bet, we'd pay it (probably through some drastic tax-laden buyout of government debt) and the result would be a catastrophic decrease in demand of products as the American populace fought to pay its bills. And it would, because Americans refuse to be wrong.
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